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SEMICONDUCTORS Moore's Law: Unveiling the hidden costs of tech advancement

From Simon Morrison 7 min Reading Time

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For more than half a century, Moore’s Law has governed the exponential growth of technology. While there have been many benefits accompanying the progression of computing power, there have also been several negative consequences. The dark sides to Moore’s Law may have major impacts on society and the environment.

Moore's Law, driving relentless technological progress, has resulted in societal and environmental challenges such as economic disparity, geopolitical tensions, and rising e-waste, necessitating a reevaluation of sustainable practices.(Source: WrightStudio - stock.adobe.com)
Moore's Law, driving relentless technological progress, has resulted in societal and environmental challenges such as economic disparity, geopolitical tensions, and rising e-waste, necessitating a reevaluation of sustainable practices.
(Source: WrightStudio - stock.adobe.com)

The world is a very different place from how it was 60 years ago. The rapid pace of digitization has changed almost every aspect of how we live and work. We’ve gone from electric typewriters and telephones to fax machines and photocopiers before making the huge leap to email, word processors, video conferencing, and artificial intelligence (AI) agents.

The exponential growth of technology has followed the prescient theory of IBM founder Gordon Moore in 1965. Now known as Moore’s Law, the theory states that the number of transistors on a microchip will double approximately every two years. While Moore accurately predicted the incredible pace of technological change, what he didn’t foresee were the many consequences of his theory.

We’re now starting to find out that the changes brought about by Moore’s Law aren’t all positive. There are some very dark sides to Moore’s Law with some very nasty possible consequences for society and for the planet.

The dark consequences of Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law isn’t scientific, although many people in the tech world act like it is. There’s no overriding law of nature or physics that states that computing power will double every two years. Nevertheless, technological progress has resolutely adhered to Moore’s timeline. What began as an astute observation has become something of a guiding principle for the tech industry.

For decades, companies, engineers, and researchers have strived to maintain the frantic pace dictated by Moore’s Law. After all, if you’re not at the cutting edge, your competitor surely will be. But all the massive technological advances encouraged by Moore’s Law have come at a cost. And humanity just might not have enough capital to settle the bill.

Tech is for the rich: The risks of the monopolization of progress

Computers and smartphones are now more prevalent and cheaper than they have ever been before. Unfortunately, making tech more affordable and widely available comes with a high price tag.

The processes and equipment involved in manufacturing semiconductor are extremely expensive. Highly skilled personnel are required to operate a fab, but it’s becoming harder and more expensive to secure qualified workers. The resources required to manufacture semiconductors are also scarce and expensive to obtain. It’s estimated that the average cost of building and operating a semiconductor fab can be anywhere between US$5 billion and US$20 billion.

Since only a few tech behemoths can afford the financial and technical demands of cutting-edge semiconductor research, innovation and competition have been stifled.

The monopolization of high-tech production has increased geopolitical tensions. Moore’s Law has resulted in semiconductors becoming a critical global asset, but the fragility of the supply chain represents a serious risk to geopolitical stability. As the chip shortage during the pandemic and the resulting glut showed, any disruption to the delicate semicon supply chain can have worldwide consequences.

The affordability of technology is also creating problems. Developing nations simply can’t afford to develop or even access cutting-edge technology. This technological disparity between rich and poor doesn’t just play out on a macro level. No matter what country you reside in, not having enough money to keep up with the latest tech puts you at a distinct disadvantage. For countries and individuals, the digital divide limits educational and economic opportunities, perpetuates poverty cycles, and hinders overall development.

Then there is the technological arms race. Developed nations are involved in a frenzied struggle to achieve semicon independence. Europe, the USA, and China are all intensely focused on securing semiconductor sovereignty. This has the potential to severely disrupt international relations and potentially lead to trade wars or even all-out conflict over essential technologies.

Some people, however, can’t see the downsides to continuing technological advancement. In their view, there’s no problem that technology can’t solve. Unfortunately, these solutions always seem to exist somewhere in the future, not now, when we need them.

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Moore’s Law: Propelling us towards a digital utopia or a descent into dystopia?

There’s no question that the pursuit of Moore’s Law has resulted in astounding technological advancements. However, Moore’s Law has now become an ‘industrial fairy tale’, as author Analee Newitz describes it in a recent New Scientist article.

As we enter the era of AI, many people now believe that tech will solve all economic, societal, and environmental problems faced by humanity. Finding the solution to major issues such as climate change can be done; it’s simply a matter of how much computing power we have available.

But this quasi-religious faith in technology may be misplaced. Newitz points out that Moore’s Law traps us into believing that one form of technology will provide us with all the answers we seek.

By following Moore’s Law, we are tying the future of civilisation itself to the ongoing development of tech, the most recent of which is generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). Proponents of techno-solutionism paint an idealised version of the future where exponential improvements in AI and automation inevitably lead to widespread prosperity. This is perhaps best encapsulated in Sam Altman’s 2021 essay ‘Moore's Law for Everything’.

Altman’s optimism isn’t shared by everybody. It can be said that Altman has severely underestimated the risks associated with rapid automation. Without strict laws and regulations to limit the societal impact of AI, we could face massive job displacement, increased concentration of wealth, and significant geopolitical instability. Instead of a utopia based on the equal distribution of technology and the implementation of a Universal Basic Income (UBI), we may wind up with a dystopian scenario where Moore’s Law drastically exacerbates economic and societal inequality and erodes democracy.

And while we argue over whether Moore’s Law will eventually lead to a better society, we neglect to take action to address urgent environmental issues.

Upgrade at all costs: The environmental catastrophe caused by Moore’s Law

As semiconductor technology advances in line with Moore’s Law, old chips quickly become obsolete. This means that industries and consumers are continuously forced to upgrade their hardware.

Indeed, there is now an overriding expectation that we can switch out our computers and smartphones for more powerful models every two years or so. Right in line with Moore’s Law. Statistics show that the average US consumer now has access to no less than ten connected devices, with the average US household having access to at least 25 devices, twice the number recorded in 2019.

The demand for increasingly sophisticated devices at a low cost results in low-quality products that are manufactured without durability as a priority. The amount of e-waste produced has almost doubled in the last decade and increased by 21 % in the last five years. Despite this, the technology industry has worryingly low levels of recycling.

Instead of acting to address these issues, companies are dodging responsibility with intensive ‘greenwashing’ efforts and releasing more products than ever before. This has resulted in mountains of discarded hardware being created in some of the poorest places on Earth.

The environment pays dearly for our slavish need for new technology. Unrestrained adherence to Moore’s Law has caused worldwide demand for energy, minerals, and resources to soar. Acquiring the materials for semiconductors and their manufacturing processes generates significant amounts of greenhouse gases. Training and operating AI requires vast data centres that rely on a constant supply of water and energy.

As technology scales ever upwards, so too will the tech industry’s thirst for resources and energy.

Creating light in the darkness: Reigning in the excesses of Moore’s Law

The benefits of technology are undeniable. But so are the consequences of unrestricted growth. To create a better future, we need to acknowledge the negative impacts of Moore’s Law and take real action to mitigate or eliminate them.

There is a desperate need for standardised methods to measure the environmental impact of AI. Without global regulations and policies, companies will continue to avoid responsibility for the adverse environmental and social effects of their activities. Semiconductor manufacturers must adopt more energy-efficient means of production. Recycling efforts across the entire supply chain of tech industries need to be ramped up. Our reliance on fossil fuels for energy needs to be broken. Access to technology must be made more equitable. Products should be designed with upgradability and durability as the standard.

The advancement of technology has brought humanity to a turning point. We must make use of the immense potentialities of technology to repair the environment and solve economic and societal issues. With ingenuity and resolve, we can shed light on the dark sides of Moore’s Law.

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